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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Can You Continue To Invest In China?

There was a BIG hype before the Beijing Olympics, major financial news indicating that the share prices of China and the Greater China were to soar higher. To a certain extent it was true. When the global economic slump began, China was one of the worst to be hit. In the below table, you can see the market returns of many countries/region.

Market Returns from 2 January 2008 to 30 September 2008.

Market

Index

Returns

India

SENSEX

-44.9%

China

Hang Seng Mainland Composite

-40.0%

Asia ex-Japan

MSCI Asia ex-Japan

-38.3%

Korea

KOSPI Index

-38.0%

Thailand

SET Index

-36.0%

Emerging Markets

MSCI Emerging Markets

-34.2%

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Index

-32.3%

Indonesia

Jakarta Composite Index

-31.3%

Taiwan

TWSE Index

-29.6%

Malaysia

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index

-29.5%

Europe

DJ Stoxx 600

-29.5%

Singapore

FTSE STI Index

-29.0%

Asian Tech

Bloomberg Asia Pacific Technology

-27.5%

World

MSCI World

-22.5%

Tech

Nasdaq 100

-20.4%

Japan

Nikkei 225

-19.0%

US

S&P 500

-17.3%

Returns are in RM terms

Source: Fundsupermart

Now, the question is : Can You Continue To Invest In China?

According to Fundsupermart's research, '..should be prepared for short-term volatility. China equity funds are single-market funds which may exhibit greater volatility than regional funds in the short term – we suggest investors place China or Greater China equity funds in the supplementary portion of their portfolio, which usually takes up no more than 20% of an overall portfolio.'

Rick Aristotle Munarriz in his article, 7 Reasons to Remember China at The Motley Fool, mentions that '...as long as all seven of these companies keep growing, they will be big market winners in four years.'

'...China has the largest population in the world, and it has had economic growth in the last nine or 10 years of at least 9%, 10% or 11%. If the bubble bursts, maybe the economy grows at 7% a year. That's still greater than other economies in the world...' this should be noted as another strong point why China should be a good place for investment during bad times, as written on Street.com's China: 'The Best Place to Invest in the Next Five to 10 Years'

It will happen eventually, the question is when? So, in order to be on the safer side, never put the money that you would be needing in less than 5 years for investment.



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